Monday, January 07, 2013

Weekly Postseason Tracker

I usually publish my Weekly Pac-12 Rankings each Monday morning. But now that Pac-12 play has begun, the only standings that matter are the conference standings. So for the rest of the season I'm going to try something a little bit different. I will attempt to identify which Pac-12 teams deserve to play in post-season tournaments.

A couple ground rules:
  • I will not attempt to predict who will earn automatic-bids. Technically, an NCAA auto-bid is awarded to the Pac-12 Tournament winner and an NIT auto-bid is awarded to a regular season champion that does not earn a NCAA bid (e.g., Washington last season). But I will ignore auto-bids and make my picks based on whether teams would qualify for at-large selections.
  • In addition to the NCAA and NIT tournaments, we now have the College Basketball Invitational ("CBI") and CollegeInsider.com ("CIT") tournaments as well. I understand the CIT is geared for mid-major teams that don't make either the NCAA or NIT; so Pac-12 teams are technically ineligible for that tournament.
  • I will not attempt to rank or seed teams. Teams will be listed in alphabetical order within each tournament.
This is obviously just for fun. As we all know, the actual selection process can be a bit of a crap-shoot and I don't claim to be any kind of expert on bracketology or bubble watching. I'll pay attention to things like RPI, conference strength and the bracket predictions made on other reputable websites. It's not an exact science, but hopefully I can get a feel for it as the season progresses.

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Conference RPI: #5

At this moment, the Pac-12 deserves five NCAA bids. Period. It also has a couple teams with mediocre records but respectable RPI, which I believe equates to an NIT or CIT bid. Then there's Oregon State, who has a solid record and some great talent; but lacks a quality win (many close calls!) and has a horrendous RPI. We'll see if these things balance out as the conference season develops.

NCAAs:
Arizona (14-0, 2-0) | RPI: #4 | SOS: #16
Top-100 Wins: vs. Colorado (6); Miami (Fla.) (8); vs. Florida (15); San Diego State (47); vs. Southern Miss (49); UTEP (85)
Sub-100 Losses: None.
Arizona State (13-2, 2-0) | RPI: #55 | SOS: #151
Top-100 Wins: vs. Colorado (6); Arkansas (87)
Sub-100 Losses: vs. DePaul (176)  

Colorado (10-4, 0-2) | RPI: #6 | SOS: #2
Top-100 Wins: vs. Colorado St. (20); Baylor (35); Murray St. (45); Dayton (82)
Sub-100 Losses: None.
Oregon (12-2, 1-0) | RPI: #48 | SOS: #185
Top-100 Wins: at UNLV (23); vs. Nebraska (78)
Sub-100 Losses: None.
UCLA (12-3, 2-0) | RPI: #39 | SOS: #47
Top-100 Wins: vs. Missouri (25); vs. Indiana St. (26); vs. California (70); vs. Stanford (81)
Sub-100 Losses: vs. Cal Poly (167)

NIT:
California (9-5, 1-1) | RPI: #70 | SOS: #50
Top-100 Wins: None.
Sub-100 Losses: None.

Washington (9-5, 1-0) | RPI: #71 | SOS: #33
Top-100 Wins: Seton Hall (50); vs. St. Louis (58)
Sub-100 Losses: vs. Albany (127); vs. Nevada (181)

CBI:

Stanford (9-6, 0-2) | RPI: #81 | SOS: #52
Top-100 Wins: Northern Iowa (96)
Sub-100 Losses: at USC (154)

OUT:
Oregon State (10-4, 0-1) | RPI: #184 | SOS: #291
Top-100 Wins: None.
Sub-100 Losses: vs. Towson (152)  
USC (6-9, 1-1) | RPI: #154 | SOS: #18
Top-100 Wins: vs. Stanford (81); vs. Dayton (82)
Sub-100 Losses: vs. UC Irvine (186); at Georgia (205) 
Utah (8-6, 0-2) | RPI: #108 | SOS: #32
Top-100 Wins: vs. Boise State (31)
Sub-100 Losses: vs. CS Northridge (151); at SMU (190); vs. Sacramento State (238)  

Washington State (9-5, 0-1) | RPI: #203 | SOS: #242
Top-100 Wins: None.
Sub-100 Losses: at Pepperdine (165)

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